BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 2. Kazakhstan's inflation rate is expected to reach 9 percent in 2023, Trend reports, referring to the forecast of Renaissance Capital investment bank.
According to the report, the base rate is forecast to be decreased to 12 percent this year.
The bank expects Kazakhstan's inflation rate to slow down to 5.5 percent in 2024, while the base rate is expected to be cut down to 8 percent.
"The regulator noted the slowdown in monthly inflation for the fourth month in a row and the decline in inflation expectations, which, however, remain elevated. Even though after this decision, inflation accelerated in February (by 0.6 percentage points to 21.3 percent year-on-year), it peaked last month and will begin to decline already in March, we believe," the bank noted.
Renaissance Capital reminded that, on February 24, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 16.75 percent, noting the possibility to cut the rate in the second half of the current year.
At the same time, the NBK has lowered its inflation forecast for 2023-end from 11-13 percent to 9-12 percent. 2024 projections have been revised as well - from 7-9 percent to 6-8 percent year-on-year.
Moreover, the NBK improved its economic growth forecast by 50 basis points in 2023 - to 3.5-4.5 percent year-on-year.