The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth forecast for Türkiye in 2026 while slightly improving its outlook for 2027, according to the July 2026 update of its World Economic Outlook, titled Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology.
The IMF projects Türkiye's real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.6 percent in 2027. Compared with the fund's April forecast, the 2026 projection was revised downward by 0.5 percentage points, while the 2027 forecast was raised by 0.1 percentage points.
According to the report, Türkiye's economy expanded by 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025. The IMF expects growth to moderate in 2026 before returning to the 2025 pace the following year.
The report also forecasts economic growth across emerging market and developing economies to slow to 3.8 percent in 2026 before recovering to 4.5 percent in 2027. It notes that country-specific outlooks continue to be shaped by differences in commodity exposure, financial conditions, tourism revenues, remittance flows, and participation in global technology value chains.
Despite the weaker near-term growth outlook, Türkiye remains one of the region's largest and most diversified economies, serving as a key manufacturing, export, and logistics hub linking Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Its industrial capacity and strategic geographic position have strengthened the role of transport connectivity as companies diversify supply chains and trade routes.
In this context, the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), continues to gain strategic significance. Extending from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye to Europe, the corridor has become one of the main alternatives for East-West freight transport.
That assessment is consistent with the view of the International Transport Forum (ITF), which said in an exclusive interview with Trend that the Middle Corridor will remain strategically important even if geopolitical conditions improve and routes through Iran become more attractive.
"The Middle Corridor would nevertheless retain strategic value as a diversified Asia-Europe route that avoids both Russia and Iran. It will continue to benefit from strong political and investment support for Eurasian connectivity," the organization said.