BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 9. EU27 could well meet their initial target of 38 bcm less gas demand in 2022 compared to 2021, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
The latest OIES report reveals that despite high gas prices from September and much weaker economic recovery in Q4 2021, annual gas demand increased by 6% year-on-year (about 32 bcm) in Europe and by 4.2% (almost 17 bcm) in EU27.
“When compared to 2019, the last year before the repercussions of COVID-19, total gas demand was 3.2 percent higher (17 bcm), though only about 1.4% higher in EU27 (less than 6 bcm) without the impact of Turkey (see Figure 6).19 In the first 4 months of 2022, estimated gas demand was down by about 8.9% in Europe and 9.2% in the EU27 compared to the same period in 2021. This represented a sharp decline of 21 bcm in Europe and 16 bcm in the EU27. If this demand reduction (even probably some demand destruction) carries on, the EU27 could well meet their initial target of 38 bcm less gas demand in 2022 compared to 2021, though for very different reasons than those envisaged in the initial REPowerEU document published in March 2022,” the report says.
OIES experts note that fluctuations of gas demand at the regional level only provide a partial story.
“The energy mix of each European country is unique, gas uses vary from one country to another and as a result, gas demand trends may significantly diverge across Europe at the national level. A general overview shows that gas demand increased in 24 countries in 2021, with the most noticeable growth (in volumes) by far in Turkey, followed by Italy, Germany, the UK, France and Spain as illustrated in Figure 6. In the first quarter of 2022, first estimates show a decline in most countries compared to the same period last year with some notable exceptions in Turkey, Spain, Slovenia and, to a lesser extent, Italy.”