BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 29. High energy prices, a sobering economic outlook and policy responses to energy security concerns lead to lower projected energy demand growth to 2030 in STEPS and APS scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trendreports October 29 with reference to the IEA.
“Oil demand is set to increase by 0.8 percent per year this decade in the STEPS, but the uptake of EVs causes oil demand to peak at around 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the mid‐2030s as declining demand in advanced economies outweighs continuing demand growth in emerging market and developing economies,” reads the IEA report says.
In the APS, oil demand reaches a peak in the mid‐2020s as sales of passenger EVs rise reflecting national and corporate targets, with current oil prices and policy support increasing consumer appetite for all‐electric or plug‐in hybrid vehicles. EVs account for 20 percent of global car sales by 2025, up from 9 percent today.
In the NZE Scenario, oil demand declines to 75 mb/d in 2030 as the road transport sector undergoes rapid electrification, and electric cars account for 60 percent of global car sales by 2030.