BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 15. Global oil production in 2022 is forecast to rise by 4.8 million barrels per day to 100.1 million barrels per day, Trend reports via the latest oil market review from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“World oil production rose for a third straight month in August, up 790,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 101.3 million barrels per day, with supply now forecast to outpace demand through the second quarter of 2023. OPEC+ output rose 340,000 barrels per day, with a strong recovery in Libya and smaller gains from Saudi Arabia and the UAE offset by losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Russia - as the latter posted its first monthly decline since April. Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance (non-OPEC+) added 450,000 barrels per day, led higher by the US, Brazil, Norway and Canada,” the report said.
According to the forecast, OPEC+ is on the right direction to add 3.2 million barrels per day to the global oil supply in 2022, with Saudi Arabia set to supply the largest year-on-year increase to reach an annual record high.
Meanwhile, “non-OPEC+ supplies are on track to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2022, with the US providing 70 percent of the increase at 1.1 million barrels per day. A downward revision to the outlook for US light tight oil production reflects supply chain tightness and cost escalation, limiting growth as operators stick to capital spending limits and shareholder returns. Canada, China and Guyana also post solid gains, albeit these volumes are much more modest,” the report noted.
As for the forecast for 2023, the IEA projects global oil production to grow by 1.7 million barrels per day, to reach an annual high of 101.8 million barrels per day, due to non-OPEC+ supply (+1.8 million barrels per day).
“US supplies are forecast to post record levels and again contribute the largest share of growth at 60 percent. By contrast, output from OPEC+ could contract with Russia’s annual output set to tumble,” the report added.