BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 16. Considering the end-of-year timetable of the EU embargo and of the prohibition of EU operators from insuring and financing the transport of Russian oil to third-party countries, the impacts on Russian supplies may not be fully realized before 2023, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“EU’s recently agreed embargo on Russian oil has led us to
revise upwards our reference case of the expected disruptions in
Russian oil production by
year-end to 2.6 mb/d from 1.6 mb/d previously. Our reference case
this month however constitutes the upper bound of the expected
range of Russian crude shut-ins that are now seen confined between
1.5 mb/d and 2.6 mb/d ending-2022, compared to last month’s
assessment that saw a range between 1.6 mb/d and 3.9 mb/d,” reads
the OIES report.
The report reveals that in May, Russian crude exports rose to 2019-highs at 5.4 mb/d from 4.8 mb/d in February.
“Russian flows remain supported by the redirection of Russian crude to Asia and the Med, the EU intake holding firm in March/May and the Russian refinery cuts confronted by a slowdown in domestic demand. Product exports in May declined further m/m nearing a collapse by 30 percent since the start of the year, as m/m intake was down across all regions while shipments marked to unknown destinations saw another increase,” says OIES.