BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 18. World supply and demand balance in the 1Q2023 implies an increase of 870,000 b/d in stock builds, Trendreports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, this is the fourth consecutive quarterly increase in global stocks. In particular, observed stocks grew by 530,000 b/d, mainly in non-OECD countries (up by 480,000 b/d), and oil on water (up by 210,000 b/d), while OECD stocks decreased by 150,000 b/d.
"Global observed oil inventories declined by 7.9 mb in March as a surge in oil on water and a slight increase in non-OECD stocks failed to offset hefty declines in the OECD. Total OECD oil stocks plummeted by 55.6 mb to 3 976 mb, their lowest since 2004 and 397.5 mb below the five-year average. Oil on water swelled by 39.8 mb as exports rose while observed non-OECD stocks built by 7.9 mb. Preliminary data for April show a marginal decline, with stock builds in on land inventories and a draw in oil on water," the report said.
However, IEA forecast indicates a significant reduction in stocks starting from the second quarter through 2023-end.
"In March, observed stocks fell by 250,000 b/d, largely in line with our implied balance. OECD industry stocks plunged by 1.8 mb/d, with a draw of 160,000 b/d of crude, NGLs and feedstocks and a hefty 1.7 mb/d decline in oil products. OECD government inventories built by a marginal 20,000 b/d. Non-OECD crude stocks rose by 210,000 b/d while product stocks at Fujairah and Singapore inched up by 50,000 b/d. Oil on water surged by 1.3 mb/d, led by oil products. The latter likely reflects the impact of European sanctions that definitively blocked Russian product imports starting February," the report added.