BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 12. Gasoline prices will normalize over 2024-2025 on the back of ramp-up of production which will allow markets to shift to a more balanced position, BMI – A Fitch Solutions Company, said, Trend reports.
“This quarter we revised our gasoline price for 2023 from USd270/gal to USd255/ gal, which marks a 6.0% reduction from our last forecast. RBOB NYMEX gasoline prices are expected to settle lower on the back of the weakness on oil markets. We maintain our view that gasoline crack spreads will remain elevated in 2023 on the back of market undersupply. The negative supply-demand gap supports widened gasoline crack spreads, limiting fuel price declines,” the company said in its latest report.
BMI analysts note that low levels of gasoline inventories in the US remain a key bullish factor for RBOB NYMEX gasoline prices in 2023.
“This quarter we revised our gasoline price for 2023 from USd270/gal to USd255/gal, which marks a 6.0% reduction from our last forecast. Our current gasoline price forecast reflects the weakness on the broader oil markets experienced over January-May 2023 and our updated oil price view. We now expect Brent prices to average at USD85/bbl in 2023, down from our initial forecast of USD95/bbl. At the same time, we highlight wider than initially expected crack spreads which moderate gasoline price declines. On balance however, the impact of oil price weakness outbalances higher crack spreads, leading to a downward gasoline price revision this quarter.”