BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.12. There are three key questions related to increasing gas exports from Azerbaijan to Europe: (a) timing and (b) volume potential and (c) pipeline expansion, Julian Bowden, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) told Trend.
He pointed out that there is a lot of interest in Europe in Azerbaijani gas.
“I noted recently that Azerbaijan is exporting a small amount this year to Romania – I read 0.3 bcm over the period Jan-April,” added the expert.
Bowden believes that in the medium term, 2026-2028 say, there could be upstream developments – ACG Deep, Umid perhaps, Absheron phase 2.
“But there needs to be a commitment made today for these prospects to deliver gas in 3-4 years time. In the long-term, say 2029 onwards, there are many possibilities. Then there is the question of Turkmen gas. As I and others have said before, in the short term Turkmen gas is probably the best option, as that gas is basically available now. I think the answer here in most respects repeats the above points. If these two developments proceed smoothly, and there is some expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, then there is some prospect of increases in export volumes,” the expert said.
As for Europe’s green energy strategy, Bowden believes that Europe (ie we mean basically the EU here) has made a mistake in not making clear that gas has a big role in the energy transition.
“You can’t go overnight from fossil to green. We are dealing here with huge energy systems; these can’t be altered overnight like repainting a room from blue to green. There is a role for gas in the transition, as a bridge to the green future. But investors need to understand and be convinced that investments they make, which in energy means for 20-25++ years, will not be undermined by policy makers changing their minds one evening. One thing for instance, is that the EU still consumes a lot of coal, much of which is poor quality lignite. A relatively quick win would be to replace the lignite with gas. To a small extent, one example of this we can see now is in Greece, which is doing this replacement quite quickly now,” he concluded.