BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.5. European 2030 gas consumption will be 26 percent lower, and European 2030 energy related CO2 emissions will be 8 percent lower, than it was expected a year ago, reads a report published by DNV GL, Trend reports Jan.5.
“Despite the fall in European gas demand, global gas shipments (LNG and LPG — measured in tonne-miles) will expand by 12 percent, as empty gas pipelines from Russia will be replaced not only by piped gas from the North Sea and Middle East / North Africa to Europe, but notably by North American shale and Middle East gas — on-keel,” the report says.
DNV GL notes that the North East Eurasia region, where Russia is the major economy and fossil energy producer, will see its gas output reduced by one third in 2030 compared to the previous forecast.
“Its gas exports will be cut in half, but even its domestic gas demand will decline as its economy suffers from sanctions, and export products such as fertilizers that use fossil fuels are also affected. We assume that sanctions against Russia remain predominantly a western policy tool. With low transport costs, oil trading patterns will shift. Compared to our 2021 ETO, North East Eurasia’s oil production in 2026 will decline by 17 percent to 12.6 Mbpd. Compared to 2021 levels, this represents a 12 percent decline,” reads the report.
However, DNV experts note that global adjustments will ensure that the region will be less affected in the longer run.
“Thus, in 2050, the lingering effect will only be a 4 percent decline in the region’s oil production: some oil exports will be subjected to successful embargo, with previous importers of Russian oil importing from elsewhere. Russian exports that used to go to Europe and North America will be diverted to new consumers, principally those regions crowded out by the western demand seeking to replace Russian oil. Such Russian oil will be traded at a discount,” says DNV.