BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 28. Hydrogen is expected to account for 46 to 49 percent of the gas supply by 2050, which stays at a level similar to the 2015 level, the latest publication from the International Renewable Energy Agency said (IRENA) said, Trend reports.
Thus, the hydrogen capacity is projected at 11.7 exajoules [EJ]/year to 13.4 EJ/year in 2050, compared to 14.2 EJ/year in 2015.
"A survey of 11 scenarios found a mean hydrogen (derivatives) estimated demand of 35 MtH2/year by 2050 (most scenarios lie in the 7 MtH2/year to 45 MtH2/year range) resulting in a hydrogen (derivatives) share of final energy demand between 11 and 19 percent. The European Commission Mix scenarios 15 reach hydrogen flows of 60 MtH2/year to 65.6 MtH2/year by 2050," the report said.
Meanwhile, the electrolyzer capacity is forecast to reach 528 GW to 581 GW for hydrogen production with another 80 GW to 95 GW of synthetic methane, and 40 GW to 50 GW of synthetic fuels.
"About 15 percent of the passenger vehicles, 22 percent of the vans and 23 percent to 26 percent of the heavy goods vehicles use fuel cell vehicles. Hydrogen uptake in industry is relatively small with about 8 percent of the energy demand in the form of hydrogen and another 8 percent as synthetic methane," the report added.
At the same time, according to IRENA, "the capital costs for solar PV and onshore wind were from USD 679/kW to USD 1 155/kW and $1,110/kW to $2,300/kW, respectively, in 2021. The WACCs (real after tax) for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind ranged from 1.3 percent (Germany) to 5.7 percent (Lithuania/ Romania). Assuming the same capital cost ratio (as opposed to the global average) for the electrolyzer, the estimated levelized cost of hydrogen is $4.60/kgH2 to $9.10/kgH2 for solar PV and $6.90/kgH2 to $9.70/kgH2 for onshore wind".