BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 16. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023 to average 102 mb/d, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, the forecast has been revised up by 200,000 b/d, compared to the previous assessment.
"The disparity of recent months between a listless OECD and a robust non-OECD remains highly pertinent. OECD demand fell by 310,000 b/d year-on-year during 1Q2023, its second straight quarterly decline, weighed down by weak GDP growth and rising fuel efficiencies. This contrasts sharply with first-quarter non-OECD growth of 1.4 mb/d, propelled by China’s reopening. This divergence carries forward into the remainder of 2023," the report said.
However, as the IEA noted, the OECD economies will go back to their year-on-year growth in 2Q2023 of 350,000 b/d, which is significantly low, compared to 1.9 mb/d in non-OECD gains, which, in turn, will benefit from strong baseline effects relative to 2022.
"The combination of generally weak industrial activity and more robust personal mobility – exemplified by China’s two-speed recovery – is fuelling the widening gap between developments in gasoil and gasoline demand. In 1Q2023 gasoline use rose by 340,000 b/d year-on-year, while gasoil consumption dropped by 310,000 b/d. We expect this gap to persist throughout the year, with gasoline use climbing by 490,000 b/d but gasoil falling by 50,000 b/d overall," the report added.