BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 4. Russia's piped gas supplies to advanced economies in Europe in 2023 are expected to decrease by 45 percent, or over 35 bcm, year-on-year, Trend reports citing the latest gas market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"The European and global gas markets suffered a major supply shock in 2022 when Russia sharply reduced its pipeline gas deliveries to the EU – by 80 percent over the course of the year – and triggered a global energy crisis," the report said.
At the same time, the agency noted that this forecast is valid only if Russia flows to the EU stay at the levels observed in the 1Q2023.
"Following a 90 bcm drop in Russian gas production in 2022, lower exports and muted domestic demand are expected to further reduce Russia’s output by over 50 bcm in 2023, adding to the challenges facing the Russian gas industry," the report said.
Meanwhile, Russia's piped gas deliveries to OECD Europe dropped by an estimated 70 percent, or 50 bcm, year-on-year during the 2022/23 heating season.
"While deliveries to Türkiye declined by close to 30 percent year-on-year, gas flows to the EU plummeted by over 80 percent, translating into a drop of 47 bcm compared to the previous heating season. In contrast, Russia's LNG exports to the EU rose by 5 percent (or 0.5 bcm) compared to the 2021/22 winter period. Altogether, the share of the EU’s total gas demand met by Russian gas is estimated to have dropped to just 10 percent, while the share met by Russian piped gas is now well below 10 percent," the report added.