BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 9. Coal production in the US is expected to decline by 7 percent to about 550 million short tons (MMst) in 2023, compared to more than 590 MMst in 2022, Trend reports via the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
"Among the drivers of the steady decline is the on-going retirement of coal-fired generating plants. We expect 11 GW of coal-fired capacity will close from the end of 2022 to the end of 2024," the report said.
Moreover, the US's coal production is forecast to drop even further in 2024 - by 9 percent to around 500 MMst.
"Coal stocks held by the power sector rise in our forecast by more than 30 percent from the end of December 2022 through May 2023, after which they decline as electric power generation ramps up to meet summer air-conditioning needs. Coal stocks increased over the past two months because warmer-than-average temperatures and falling natural gas prices reduced the need for coal generation. Monthly coal production had been rising in response to relatively strong coal demand in the fourth quarter of 2022, due in, part, to a colder-than-average December in 2022," EIA explained.
Meanwhile, coal production decreased by 14 percent in February 2023, compared to the previous month - from 52 MMst to 45 MMst, due to mild weather that reduced coal-fired generation.
"The average price of coal to electric generators reached $2.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January 2023, rising 41 percent from $1.89/MMBtu in May 2021. The rise in coal price over that period was a result of upward pressures on coal demand due to high natural gas prices and several extreme weather-related events, which occurred amid constrains on coal production and transportation capacity. Prices fell slightly in February to $2.65/MMBtu, and we expect them to fall slightly throughout the forecast to $2.54/MMBtu by December 2024," the report added.