BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 15. Balances could still flip into a market deficit in Q4 2022, Trend reports with reference to Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Looking ahead the outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty amid the realization of Russian disruptions and policy uncertainty, as well as the global demand outcomes. The market uncertainty surrounding our global balance outlook in 2023 ranges between -1.8 mb/d and 1.7 mb/d. Global oil demand growth in our forecast scenarios range between 2 mb/d and 2.3 mb/d y/y in 2022 and 1.3 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d y/y in 2023. Global oil supply growth ranges between 5 mb/d and 5.6 mb/d y/y in 2022 and -0.3 mb/d and 1.8 mb/d y/y in 2023,” reads the OIES report.
Nevertheless, the market surplus in 2022 is upgraded by 0.35 mb/d from 0.38 mb/d forecast previously, and the deficit eased slightly in 2023 by 40,000 b/d from -0.54 mb/d.
The outlook was revised significantly in H2 2022 with the previous small surplus of 0.16 mb/d upgraded to 1.09 mb/d.
Global oil demand growth is unchanged to 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and is upgraded by 0.24 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d in 2023, from 1.4 mb/d forecast previously. Global GDP growth forecast based on Oxford Economics is unchanged to 3.1 percent in 2022 and 3 percent in 2023.