BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.14. The liquified natural gas (LNG) trade will see a sustainable growth in the near term, Trend reports with reference to bp’s 2023 energy outlook.
However, there is a growing uncertainly over the LNG demand, due to the different trends in emerging and developed markets affected by industrialization in the first and clean energy transition in the latter.
New Momentum and Accelerated scenarios predict around 60 percent growth in LNG trade over the first 10 years of the outlook, while the Net Zero scenario suggests an increase by a third.
The major drivers of this increase are the emerging markets in Asia, including China, India amid the industrialization. LNG accounts for 65-75 percent of the gas consumption growth in emerging economies in Asia by 2030 in all three scenarios. Europe’s LNG imports rise as well by 2030 in New Momentum and Accelerated scenarios due to the declining supplies of pipeline gas from Russia and high gas demand.
bp points out that LNG trade will see a growing uncertainty after 2030. In the New Momentum scenario, the LNG imports rise by around 30 percent from 2030 to 2050, while they drop by about 40 percent in Accelerated and Net Zero.
The LNG demand in New Momentum grows backed up by the increasing demand in India and other emerging economies for the use of natural gas in the power and industrial sectors.