BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 20. In total for 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects coal-fired electricity generation to increase by 8 percent (50 TWh) while gas declines by close to 7 percent (60 TWh), Trend reports.
IEA’s latest report reveals that Europe is particularly affected by rising fossil fuel prices and supply shortages, most of all for natural gas.
“The situation is exacerbated by a significant decline in nuclear generation, which we expect to decrease by 12 percent (more than 100 TWh) in 2022. Lower plant availability in France (following safety investigations over corrosion problems) is the main contributor, with additional drops reflecting the retirement of 4 GW of nuclear power in Germany and the situation in Ukraine nuclear plants.
These drops are only partially offset by the grid connection of Olkiluoto-3 (1.6 GW) in Finland. Growing renewables generation in 2022 compensates some of the decline in nuclear generation. With high gas prices driving gas-to-coal switching and governments intervening to reduce gas consumption in favor of coal (e.g. delaying coal power plant retirements and extending permitted operating hours), coal-fired electricity generation has increased in countries with spare coal capacity while gas has declined (for example, Germany). In total for 2022, we expect coal-fired electricity generation to increase by 8 percent (50 TWh) while gas declines by close to 7 percent (60 TWh),” reads the report.
For 2023, IEA predicts that renewables growth of 7 percent could again meet or exceed demand increase.
“With about stable nuclear generation compared to 2022 (as French nuclear rebounds to offset closures in Germany and Belgium), fossil-fuel electricity generation could decline by close to 6 percent (coal by 8 percent and gas by 4 percent). However, this depends heavily on the availability and price of gas and measures taken to reduce import dependency from Russia (such as delayed coal retirements).”