BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 13. The key drivers of non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 are projected to be the US, Canada, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while oil production is expected to decline mainly in Russia, Thailand and Indonesia, Trend reports with reference to OPEC.
For 2023, the key drivers of non-OPEC supply growth are forecast to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, while oil production is projected to decline mainly in Russia, Mexico and Azerbaijan.
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 (including processing gains) is forecast at 2.1 mb/d for an average of 65.7 mb/d, which is broadly unchanged from the previous assessment. The upward revisions to China and Canada were offset by downward revision to other countries. Russia’s liquids production for the rest of the year poses large uncertainty. Labour, supply chain issues and cost inflation are the primary drivers of uncertainty in the US, however, the current rate of hydraulic fracturing and drilling in the major shale oil areas of the US could support production growth in the coming months. Robust growth in the US oil and gas rig count, as well as an estimated 1,000 monthly hydraulic fracturing operations have continued so far in 2022. Nevertheless, the US liquids supply growth forecast for 2022 was kept unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for the year are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while production is expected to decline mainly in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand.
Non-OPEC liquids production in 2023 is expected to grow by 1.7 mb/d to average 67.4 mb/d (including 70 tb/d in processing gains). Liquids supply in the OECD countries is forecast to increase next year by 1.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD region is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d. The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US (1.1 mb/d), Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, whereby the majority of the increase in the US and other countries is expected to come from current project ramp-ups. Nevertheless, uncertainty regarding the operational aspects of US production and the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remains high.